The Iphone reigns supreme..

Top apps:
1) Fuzzle - a dangerously addictive game.

The Trend is Your Friend.......

It has been a somewhat slow summer, so I decided a few weeks back to re-read (or read in some cases) a few "classic" trading texts. To determine which books I should read, I go by some of the reading lists at Amazon (i.e. "Top Ten Trading Books) or book recommendations of other traders. I look for the common denominators, those books that end up on the most lists. I discovered this slim text on many of the lists, so I decided to read it for the first time. It reminded me time and again of some very basic, and important trading tools.

Richard D. Wyckoff wrote this book between 1932-1933. It began as a series of articles in a leading financial magazine. The book is a series of lists, axioms, and how-to articles. Here are just a few basic principles behind Wyckoff's method:

1. Determine the overall trend of the market. Markets trend up, down and sideways. Buy into the direction of the market.
   
2. Of the following: what stock to buy, why to buy a stock, or when to buy a stock - when rules, timing trumps all!
3. Always protect yourself using stop losses one or two points away (depending on price of course.....)
4. Let your winners run and close out losses IMMEDIATELY. Why settle for 3 point profits and 30 point losses......
5. Riding a dead horse, switch to a live one. Or, long in a bear market, then get out and get short!
6. Observe which side, the bulls or bears, possess the greatest power and go with that side.
7. Abandon the idea of making money from news-driven events (i.e. earnings reports).
8. A weakening market means some market movers have sold considerably more than others are willing to buy.
9. Always keep your risk acceptable.
10. The night before the market opens, read about the 100 most active stocks of the that day, then decide which will move the soonest, the fastest, the farthest, and in which direction the move will occur.
11. Systematically control profits in excess of your losses.
    

Wyckoff's emphasis on trends is understandable. By 1932-33, many people had seen their entire savings wiped out by selling into the greatest financial panic of all time. Wyckoff, and many other savvy traders, were only too happy to buy stocks at rock-bottom prices, and hold them until the prices had recovered. Does this scenario sound familiar? We are in the middle of downward-moving market, with no bottom in sight. Wyckoff's book offers some very important lessons for these volatile times.

The Boys Are Back in Town......

I don't watch SNL too much these days. I once viewed it pretty religiously, but I got older, and SNL has always skewed demographically towards an 18-30 male demographic. A couple of weeks ago, I was hanging out with my nephew on a saturday night and SNL came on so we watched it. Ashley Ketchup was the guest host. Apparently he is a young actor, graced with some comedic talent. Plus, I hear he is married to an older actress of some renown, Demi Glaze. Anyway...we were chatting, hanging out....until Gnarls Barkley came out and sang "Run". The group completely re-energized the show, which had been lackluster until that point! When I stopped watching SNL many moons ago, there were very few bands that could come out and change the entire tenor of the show with their performances. One was Neil Young, who sang "Keep on Rocking in the Free World" in 1989. Another was the late, great Roy Orbison. He came out and had the entire audience under his gaze when he sang "Crying" with Dennis Hopper as guest host. Of course there have been others. Elvis Costello during the second or third season, when he changed his playlist at the last minute, Gil Scott Heron, Patti Smith, Nirvana, David Bowie. But it seems these days, when you have people like Ashley Simpson performing.....well, you understand. I am nostalgic, and nostalgia is nothing but melancholic by nature.......

The Man in the Grey Flannel Iron Mask.....

What, me worry??





Robert Downey Jr. was box office poison for a few years. I remember when he ws facing yet another drug charge a few years ago (cocaine and heroin...that old chestnut...) and the court of popular opinion seemed to be, "Let him rot in jail for awhile, maybe that will teach him a lesson...." Well, I hate the court of popular opinion and it's great to see it proved WRONG once again! Downey Jr. is a really fine actor, one of a handful of actors who are not over-hyped to within an inch of their lives, and that makes him ready for........the man in the iron mask. You really have to tip your hat to him, he has come a long way in the last ten years.

It was very smart to cast him as Tony Stark. The guy is a lot like Toby Maguire; both are excellent actors, and both wear their hearts on their sleeves. However, Downey is dangerous. He has a side to him, like a young Albert Finney or Richard Harris. Without him as the film's center, without his insouciant sideways smile and sardonic grin, the movie would be just another blow-em-up-over-the-top Hollywood spectacle. But the movie is good.....quite good in fact.

Downey's soul now belongs to the studios, at least for the forseeable future. I am sure he is contractually obligated to do Iron Man 2, 3, 4 and 5. I attended an opening day screening at a theatre in lower Manhattan and most shows that day were sold out. it will undoubtedly be the number one box office attraction until the next BATMAN installment comes around. If Downey has another fall from grace during the upcoming years, and I really hope he doesn't, it will be very interesting to note public reaction now that he represents a franchise.

Truly, madly, deeply......

LUST, CAUTION is a lovely film from Ang Lee (The Ice Storm and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon). Lee is a genius at mining the very individual, personal, and emotional devastation of characters. Usually these characters are operating against a background of political upheaval or unrest. Intimacy becomes impossible. As their personal selves become obliterated, they develop a shared bond with another person struggling against similar forces. In The Ice Storm, a group of adults drink to much, they have affairs, and they completely abandon their children. The children resort to drugs, alcohol, random sex, and acts of deliberate cruelty. All this ensues with Watergate unfolding in the background. Remember when the young boy and girl (Christina Ricci and Elijah Woods) decide to have sex while Ricci's character dons a Richard Nixon mask......

LUST, CAUTION is set during a different turbulent period, the Japanese occupation of China during World War II. The two people at the center of the storm are a high-ranking Chinese party official named Mr. Yee, played by the incomparable and fearless actor, Tony Leung. Leung is fast becoming one of those international actors that doesn't really have to do anything......you know everything there is to know just by looking at his face. There is a silence, a quietness there that is just devastating to watch. He is like a young Max Von Sydow or Takashi Shimura. This guy could not register a false note if he tried. Wei Lang plays a young woman who is enlisted by a group of militant Chinese actors, in order to infiltrate the ranks of the newly formed Japanese/Chinese coalition.

A lot has been written about the graphic sexuality of the movie and it is plentiful, acrobatic, and really well-done. Sex is control, or a release from being controlled, or a reversal of the master/slave roles. Both Tony Leung and and Wei Lang are absolutely fearless actors, more so when they are completely naked to each other. There is something touching when Leung's character slowly begins to let his guard down. He slowly begins to trust once again. There are no masks when they lie next to each other, completely spent after another intimate moment. This movie is has a terrific ensemble of supporting actors. Especially wonderful is Joan Chen as Mr. Yee's long suffering, manipulative wife. Watch the scenes where the women play Mah Jong. The women's comments about society, and themselves is absolutely great dialog.

Waiting for Visa.....

A while back I recommended Mastercard (MA) as a core purchase. First at around $42.00 per share, and later at $102.00 per share. Yesterday the stock closed at $189.00, which is down from it's weekly high of $200.00. A gain of over 100% from when I last recommended the stock. I have sold quite a lot of this stock and am now tuning my attention elsewhere because I realize that a stock that costs $20,000 for a lousy 100 shares is beyond the means of many investors. I believe MA will continue to move up in the LONG TERM and I will continue to buy long, slightly-out-of-the-money calls. However, short term prospects look a little bleak, as the consumer spending is down, oil prices are surging, the credit markets are going through a bit of a whirlwind, and thus far the earnings reports coming from most companies paint a dismal picture for the rest of quarter. Mastercard will also face significant pressure when the IPO for Visa becomes a reality. Yesterday, American Express paid 2.25 bln to Visa to settle their anti-trust lawsuit. Discover and Visa are lining up Mastercard in their sights in a similar lawsuit so be prepared and think about some protective puts just in case.......

Another stock I picked this week is a little more affordable. Prior to it's earnings on Wednesday, November 7, I purchased 200 shares each of Onyx Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ONXX) and Corrections Corporation of America (NYSE: CXW). Both saw considerable interest prior to their earnings reports. ONXX surged up by almost 20% on Wednesday morning, and CXW was up a nice, modest 7.5% on Thursday. PLEASE don't think I only pick winners. I bought Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO) ahead of it's earnings report on Wednesday 11/7/07, and the stock went down 9% on Thursday. Luckily I ditched it before it reached bottom, but I still took a nice loss.......

In the next post I will give you details that led me to BELIEVE ONXX and CXW would rise after their respective earnings report.

It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine...

SONS OF HOLLYWOOD

I believe pop culture is great, a real indicator of a society's values, mores, etc. If that is true, then I don't know what this show says about the times in which we currently live. The premise of SONS OF HOLLYWOOD is simple: three young men ( boys, really...) all related to famous fathers, decide to become roommates and live the Hollywood dream. Here is what makes them perfect roomates, the things they all have in common: giant inferiority complexes from growing up in the shadow of their more famous fathers: emotionally stunted: and they all have sociopathic tendencies! So now you see why it is so difficult to stop watching the show! Here is the cast of characters:

Randy Spelling - who is he besides Aaron Spelling's son? A needy young man with very little acting ability. He acts like a spoiled, manipulative child with his friends. His delusional belief system works around the need to be perceived as a "real" actor. He should change his last name for a while, then go to some auditions, and see how struggling actors are treated in the real world. During one scene, some film makers cast him in a low-budget independent film. So how does Mr. Struggling Actor show up on set? In a limo, with his manager(Weintraub) right at his side. At one point he even has Weintraub pick out the clothes he will wear in the scene, completely ignoring the recommendations of the costume designer. Weintraub also sits by the director during the whole scene, making sure the director fully appreciates the magic that is RANDY SPELLING! After he delivers his lines in a flat, monotone, disinterested manner, Randy finally finishes after roughly a DOZEN CUTS.

I think that being a game show host might be in Randy's future, and I don't mean any disrespect to other game show hosts. During the first episode, with his father near death back in California, Randy and David hop on a plane to go partying in Miami. But thankfully Randy is able to be by his father's side when he passes away, while he reminds that audience that he had to cut his vacation short to accommodate his father's death. What a guy......

Sean Stewart- Oy, what a mess this kid is! Randy Spelling seems like a well-rounded individual compared to his buddy Sean. Sean harbors all kinds of resentment towards his famous dad (Rod Stewart) because Stewart (allegedly) paid no attention to Sean during his formative years. Yet he wants to follow right in Daddy's footsteps and become a famous singer. His special brand of narcissism includes, but is not limited to, some of the following: Sean seems very limited intellectually, and he reports he has ADHD (possibly self-disagnosed) . At one point he hears the word "cerebral" , and thinks it is somehow related to "cereal".

Another of Sean's fine qualities is his sexual confusion. He is often wrestling with his male buddies and he dates a model who looks like a teenage boy. Later he pretends to be gay by speaking with a lisp or offering sex to his buddies. Finally, we get to see him acting like a transexual, as he strolls around with his penis tucked between his legs. No, I'm not kidding so stop asking me that.....

Perhaps the saddest part of Sean's personal train wreck of a life is his lack of talent. He wants to be a singer, but HE CAN'T SING and HE IS SLIGHTLY TONE DEAF! When he goes for some basic vocal lessons (under the watchful eye of David), he is unable to mimic the coach's very simple warm-up exercises.

Unfortunately we also watch Sean struggle with drugs and alcohol. We also watch his friends enable him to continue drinking and taking drugs, even as they complain about both! It's really pathetic watching him go to bars and clubs on a nightly basis, absolutely clueless that alcohol is served in bars in California! Meanwhile, Sean complains about always having to go places where there is alcohol! He whines about not being able to drink with his friends, both of whom have AA somewhere in their future.

At one point someone invites Jack Osborne, Ozzie's son(THE OSBORNES), over to the house to help Sean. Jack has apparently been clean for some time and it is hoped that some of his wisdom will rub off on Sean. Osborne is an intelligent, sincere young man. He has great empathy for Sean's struggle. But it was a mistake having him appear along side Sean, because no one can talk any sense to this walking totem pole.....

David Weintraub- he is"the manager". He also manages some other talent besides Sean and Randy. One is the rapper Kurrupt. Weintraub is all about the money, the clothes, the fancy sports car, the deal. On a positive note, because he spends less time talking about himself then do the two others, you might be able to tolerate him a bit longer. Weintraub is shallow, manipulative, and he smokes like a chimney. The guy is all nervous energy, and clearly he is the mediator in the household.

This show is just too watchable for my own good. I hope they cancel it only because it saddens me to think I might lose another half hour of my life by watching any more episodes.