Waiting for Visa.....

A while back I recommended Mastercard (MA) as a core purchase. First at around $42.00 per share, and later at $102.00 per share. Yesterday the stock closed at $189.00, which is down from it's weekly high of $200.00. A gain of over 100% from when I last recommended the stock. I have sold quite a lot of this stock and am now tuning my attention elsewhere because I realize that a stock that costs $20,000 for a lousy 100 shares is beyond the means of many investors. I believe MA will continue to move up in the LONG TERM and I will continue to buy long, slightly-out-of-the-money calls. However, short term prospects look a little bleak, as the consumer spending is down, oil prices are surging, the credit markets are going through a bit of a whirlwind, and thus far the earnings reports coming from most companies paint a dismal picture for the rest of quarter. Mastercard will also face significant pressure when the IPO for Visa becomes a reality. Yesterday, American Express paid 2.25 bln to Visa to settle their anti-trust lawsuit. Discover and Visa are lining up Mastercard in their sights in a similar lawsuit so be prepared and think about some protective puts just in case.......

Another stock I picked this week is a little more affordable. Prior to it's earnings on Wednesday, November 7, I purchased 200 shares each of Onyx Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ONXX) and Corrections Corporation of America (NYSE: CXW). Both saw considerable interest prior to their earnings reports. ONXX surged up by almost 20% on Wednesday morning, and CXW was up a nice, modest 7.5% on Thursday. PLEASE don't think I only pick winners. I bought Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO) ahead of it's earnings report on Wednesday 11/7/07, and the stock went down 9% on Thursday. Luckily I ditched it before it reached bottom, but I still took a nice loss.......

In the next post I will give you details that led me to BELIEVE ONXX and CXW would rise after their respective earnings report.

It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine...

SONS OF HOLLYWOOD

I believe pop culture is great, a real indicator of a society's values, mores, etc. If that is true, then I don't know what this show says about the times in which we currently live. The premise of SONS OF HOLLYWOOD is simple: three young men ( boys, really...) all related to famous fathers, decide to become roommates and live the Hollywood dream. Here is what makes them perfect roomates, the things they all have in common: giant inferiority complexes from growing up in the shadow of their more famous fathers: emotionally stunted: and they all have sociopathic tendencies! So now you see why it is so difficult to stop watching the show! Here is the cast of characters:

Randy Spelling - who is he besides Aaron Spelling's son? A needy young man with very little acting ability. He acts like a spoiled, manipulative child with his friends. His delusional belief system works around the need to be perceived as a "real" actor. He should change his last name for a while, then go to some auditions, and see how struggling actors are treated in the real world. During one scene, some film makers cast him in a low-budget independent film. So how does Mr. Struggling Actor show up on set? In a limo, with his manager(Weintraub) right at his side. At one point he even has Weintraub pick out the clothes he will wear in the scene, completely ignoring the recommendations of the costume designer. Weintraub also sits by the director during the whole scene, making sure the director fully appreciates the magic that is RANDY SPELLING! After he delivers his lines in a flat, monotone, disinterested manner, Randy finally finishes after roughly a DOZEN CUTS.

I think that being a game show host might be in Randy's future, and I don't mean any disrespect to other game show hosts. During the first episode, with his father near death back in California, Randy and David hop on a plane to go partying in Miami. But thankfully Randy is able to be by his father's side when he passes away, while he reminds that audience that he had to cut his vacation short to accommodate his father's death. What a guy......

Sean Stewart- Oy, what a mess this kid is! Randy Spelling seems like a well-rounded individual compared to his buddy Sean. Sean harbors all kinds of resentment towards his famous dad (Rod Stewart) because Stewart (allegedly) paid no attention to Sean during his formative years. Yet he wants to follow right in Daddy's footsteps and become a famous singer. His special brand of narcissism includes, but is not limited to, some of the following: Sean seems very limited intellectually, and he reports he has ADHD (possibly self-disagnosed) . At one point he hears the word "cerebral" , and thinks it is somehow related to "cereal".

Another of Sean's fine qualities is his sexual confusion. He is often wrestling with his male buddies and he dates a model who looks like a teenage boy. Later he pretends to be gay by speaking with a lisp or offering sex to his buddies. Finally, we get to see him acting like a transexual, as he strolls around with his penis tucked between his legs. No, I'm not kidding so stop asking me that.....

Perhaps the saddest part of Sean's personal train wreck of a life is his lack of talent. He wants to be a singer, but HE CAN'T SING and HE IS SLIGHTLY TONE DEAF! When he goes for some basic vocal lessons (under the watchful eye of David), he is unable to mimic the coach's very simple warm-up exercises.

Unfortunately we also watch Sean struggle with drugs and alcohol. We also watch his friends enable him to continue drinking and taking drugs, even as they complain about both! It's really pathetic watching him go to bars and clubs on a nightly basis, absolutely clueless that alcohol is served in bars in California! Meanwhile, Sean complains about always having to go places where there is alcohol! He whines about not being able to drink with his friends, both of whom have AA somewhere in their future.

At one point someone invites Jack Osborne, Ozzie's son(THE OSBORNES), over to the house to help Sean. Jack has apparently been clean for some time and it is hoped that some of his wisdom will rub off on Sean. Osborne is an intelligent, sincere young man. He has great empathy for Sean's struggle. But it was a mistake having him appear along side Sean, because no one can talk any sense to this walking totem pole.....

David Weintraub- he is"the manager". He also manages some other talent besides Sean and Randy. One is the rapper Kurrupt. Weintraub is all about the money, the clothes, the fancy sports car, the deal. On a positive note, because he spends less time talking about himself then do the two others, you might be able to tolerate him a bit longer. Weintraub is shallow, manipulative, and he smokes like a chimney. The guy is all nervous energy, and clearly he is the mediator in the household.

This show is just too watchable for my own good. I hope they cancel it only because it saddens me to think I might lose another half hour of my life by watching any more episodes.

You've got to pick a pocket or two.....

MA - Mastercard - This company went public in September of 2006 and has been on a steady climb up ever since. The name of the game here is branding; the Mastercard name is recognized worldwide. Mastercard's IPO took place on MAy 25, 2006 with the stock trading at $40.30. I purchased it that day for approvimately 41.58. The stock closed that day at $46.00, a nice one day pickup. I have successfully bought in and out of MA quite a few times in the past year, and lost when I misread some signals or exited a winning trade too early. Recently I suffered a 12% loss on February 9th, when the company announced earnings. The stock was heavily shorted and I got stuck with a LONG position that erased a lot of gains. The recent market weakness has only made MA more attractive.

BUY 200 MA at 102.00 LIMIT

Stock picks for Monday March 12. 2007

I have been an active trader for several years now. I still have a long way to go before I can rely on trading for income. I have tried quite a few web sites for trading information, and I have come up with a list on those I consider to be the best in show.

1) Briefing.com - I use this for earnings reports, and for breaking news. It has pretty good coverage, and breaking news is relayed quickly. However, I still get the news quicker by using the "Dow Jones" news filter in Tradestation. I want to know when a company is in play and this service has a clean, easy-to-follow interface. The platinum service is about $25.00 per month, and there are varying levels of service. The "Trader" level is the costliest ($350.00 per month) but you receive daily trade recommendations.